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Strong sockeye return predicted for 2012 |
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December 17, 2011 |
Early forecasts by fishery officials predict
strong Columbia-Snake river salmon returns
almost across the board in 2012. And in the case
of sockeye and summer chinook, record runs are
predicted.
The 2010 sockeye return of nearly 388,000 adult
fish was the largest on record since completion
in 1938 of construction of Bonneville Dam, where
fish are tallied as they climb over the fish
ladders.
A Technical Advisory Committee forecast
completed last week predicts that late next
summer as many as 462,000 sockeye salmon
spawners will return to the mouth on their way
to, primarily, the Okanogan River drainage and
its Oosyos Lake, which straddles the central
Washington-British Columbia border.
“It’s hard for me to see how we’re not going to
have a big run,” said Jeff Fryer, the Columbia
River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission researcher
who prepared the sockeye forecast. The 2012
prediction is for a return of 431,300 sockeye
spawners to the Okanogan; 28,800 to central
Washington’s Wenatchee River basin; and 1,900 to
the Snake River. The Wenatchee, Okanogan and
Snake all feed into the Columbia.
A record number of 2-year-old smolts, 8.7
million, headed down the Okanogan toward the
ocean in 2010, according to Canadian estimates.
That was four times the previous high from
2003-2010, Fryer said.
And a total of 32,900 sockeye “jacks” from that
2010 outmigration returned last year, according
to Fryer’s estimates. That’s nearly double the
previous high in 2008, which returned a
then-record 308,000 Okanogan 4-year-olds in
2010. Jacks are 3-year-old fish that spent just
one year in the ocean. The 2012 forecast is for
a return of 421,500 two-ocean Okanogan sockeye
salmon.
“Ocean conditions over the past two years have
been in the average range so I see no reason why
we should not have record returns of Okanogan
two-ocean fish this year…, according to Fryer’s
sockeye forecast memorandum. Two-ocean,
4-year-old sockeye typically make up about 80
percent of the Okanogan run.
“There seems to be a pretty good relationship
between jacks and the two-ocean fish,” Fryer
said of using jacks from one year as a primary
indictor of the number of 4-year-olds that will
return the following year.
“Although in recent years I have been reluctant
to forecast runs as large as my data suggests,
this year I am pretty comfortable with a high
forecast in the 400,000-500,000 range.
TAC felt the same way about the Upper Columbia
summer chinook stock, which also returned a
strong jack class this year,
“We’re predicting a record return of summer
chinook” to the mouth of the Columbia,”
according to CRITFC biologist Stuart Ellis, who
is a TAC member. TAC, made up of federal, state
and tribal fisheries experts, produces salmon
and steelhead forecasts during the preseason and
in-season. “It’ll be a big run.”
The 2012 forecast is for a return of 91,200
Upper Columbia summer chinook. The previous high
on a record dating back to 1980 was 80,600 this
past summer.
Upper Columbia River summer chinook are destined
for spawning areas and hatcheries upstream of
Priest Rapids Dam. Upper Columbia summer chinook
are not ESA-listed, and the population is
currently considered healthy.
Hatchery supplementation programs and improved
natural habitat have played a significant role
in what have increased Upper Columbia summer
chinook abundance trends observed since 1999
according the “2011 Joint Staff Report: Stock
Status and Fisheries for Spring Chinook, Summer
Chinook, Sockeye, Steelhead, and Other Species,
and Miscellaneous Regulations,” which is
produced by the Oregon and Washington
departments of fish and wildlife.
The average run size during the 2000s was 59,800
adults, which was three times greater than the
average run size of the 1980s and four times
greater than the average run size of the 1990s.
Since 2002, the majority of the hatchery
production has been mass-marked with an adipose
fin clip. Natural-spawning populations also
contribute significantly to the run.
The upper Columbia sockeye stocks (Okanogan and
Wenatchee) are considered healthy populations
and are not listed under the Endangered Species
Act.
Historically, the Wenatchee return was similar
in abundance to the Okanogan return. But since
2006, with unprecedented large returns, the
Wenatchee stock has represented less than 20
percent of the upper Columbia return, according
to the staff report.
A small remnant population of the Snake River
sockeye returns to Redfish Lake in central Idaho
after swimming up the Columbia, Snake and Salmon
rivers. Production is maintained through a
captive brood program and most returning adults
are progeny of this program. The Snake River
stock was federally-listed as endangered in
November 1991.
During the 1990s the number of sockeye returning
to the Snake River basin averaged 12 fish per
year. During 2000-2007, Snake River sockeye
returns improved, but remained severely
depressed averaging less than 100 fish annually.
Since 2008 the Snake River sockeye return has
improved steadily, likely a result of improved
passage conditions and increases in production
Sockeye salmon migrate through the lower
Columbia River during June and July, with normal
peak passage at Bonneville Dam around July 1. |
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