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NOAA says wetter, cooler winter ahead |
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October 26, 2016 |
Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center
Thursday issued the U.S. Winter Outlook, saying
that La Nina is expected to influence winter
conditions this year.
The Climate Prediction Center issued a La Nina
watch this month, predicting the climate
phenomenon is likely to develop in late fall or
early winter.
La Nina favors drier, warmer winters in the
southern U.S and wetter, cooler conditions in
the northern U.S. If La Nina conditions
materialize, forecasters say it should be weak
and potentially short-lived.
“This climate outlook provides the most likely
outcome for the upcoming winter season, but it
also provides the public with a good reminder
that winter is just up ahead and it’s a good
time to prepare for typical winter hazards, such
as extreme cold and snowstorms,” said Mike
Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate
Prediction Center. “Regardless of the outlook,
there is always some chance for extreme winter
weather, so prepare now for what might come
later this winter.”
Other factors that often play a role in the
winter weather include the Arctic Oscillation,
which influences the number of arctic air masses
that penetrate into the South and create
nor'easters on the East Coast, and the
Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can affect the
number of heavy rain events in the Pacific
Northwest.
The 2016 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through
February):
Precipitation:
* Wetter than normal conditions are most likely in the northern Rockies,
around the Great Lakes, in Hawaii and in western
Alaska
* Drier than normal conditions are most likely across the entire southern
U.S. and southern Alaska.
Temperature:
* Warmer than normal conditions are most likely across the southern U.S.,
extending northward through the central Rockies,
in Hawaii, in western and northern Alaska and in
northern New England.
* Cooler conditions are most likely across the northern tier from
Montana to western Michigan.
* The rest of the country falls into the “equal chance” category, meaning
that there is not a strong enough climate signal
in these areas to shift the odds, so they have
an equal chance for above-, near-, or
below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation.
Drought:
* Drought will likely persist through the winter in many regions
currently experiencing drought, including much
of California and the Southwest
* Drought is expected to persist and spread in the southeastern U.S. and
develop in the southern Plains.
* New England will see a mixed bag, with improvement in the western parts
and persistence to the east.
* Drought improvement is anticipated in northern California, the northern
Rockies, the northern Plains and parts of the
Ohio Valley.
This seasonal outlook does not project where and
when snowstorms may hit or provide total
seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts
are dependent upon the strength and track of
winter storms, which are generally not
predictable more than a week in advance.
However, La Nina winters tend to favor above
average snowfall around the Great Lakes and in
the northern Rockies and below average snowfall
in the mid-Atlantic. |
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