From the Columbia Basin Bulletin
http://www.cbbulletin.com/
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center
released an updated El Nino forecast this week
that is in line with previous forecasts in
recent months predicting that weather patterns
driven by Pacific Ocean water temperatures will
rival the strongest El Nino on record in
1997-1998.
Mike Halpert, deputy director of the agency’s
Climate Prediction Center in College Park,
Maryland, said Thursday that things haven’t
changed much since a mid-September update.
“It is very similar. There are things that are
right on track. There are things that are
behaving and evolving in a way they were last
month or even a couple of months ago,” Halpert
said.
The NOAA forecasts there will be a 95 percent
chance that El Nino influences will continue
through the coming winter and gradually weaken
in the spring of 2016. El Nino is a climate
influence that is primarily measured by Pacific
Ocean water temperatures that are evaluated in
several sectors of the ocean.
Halpert explained that “the region we hone in
on” for North America is called El Nino 3.4,
which encompasses the east-central equatorial
Pacific. Water temperatures in that region this
year are about 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit higher
than historical averages, which is in the same
range of conditions that prevailed in 1997-1998.
The characteristic influences of a strong El
Nino pattern in the Pacific Northwest are
warmer-than-average temperatures, and
below-average precipitation — conditions that
existed over the past winter and spring, causing
challenges for fisheries and hydro managers
across the region.
But El Nino has tended to have different impacts
elsewhere in the U.S. The Southwest, for
instance, is expected to have cooler temperature
and higher precipitation, compared to historic
averages. In 1997-1998, California had
precipitation that amounted to about 15 inches
higher than historic averages, which would be a
welcome change for many in that drought-stricken
state.
The last time an El Nino pattern was identified
was in 2009-2010. “It was quite dry,” Halpert
said of the Pacific Northwest. “It was a very
dry winter.”
The predicted influences of El Nino on the
Columbia Basin and the Northern Rockies persist.
“We have an enhanced chance of a warmer and
drier winter,” Halpert said.
But NOAA is holding back on a more detailed
forecast for winter temperatures and
precipitation as a result of El Nino until a
media teleconference that is scheduled for later
this week.
Halpert said gauging the broader expected
influences of El Nino is within reach. “Does
that mean we can see everything that can happen?
And my answer is, of course not.” |
