Winter weather is like a box of chocolates
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November 25, 2013 |
You just don't know what you're gonna get. This
winter will likely see above-average
precipitation in the Northern Rockies,
particularly over Montana and northern Wyoming,
but the Pacific Northwest has an “equal chance”
for above, near, or below average temperatures,
according to the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration.
You can see their annual Winter Outlook at
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html.
Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial
Pacific Ocean have been near average since
spring 2012, and forecasters expect that to
continue through the winter.
This means that neither El Niño nor La Niña is
expected to influence the climate during the
upcoming winter.
“It’s a challenge to produce a long-term winter
forecast without the climate pattern of an El
Niño or a La Niña in place out in the Pacific
because those climate patterns often strongly
influence winter temperature and precipitation
here in the United States,” said Mike Halpert,
acting director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction
Center.
“Without this strong seasonal influence, winter
weather is often affected by short-term climate
patterns, such as the Arctic Oscillation, that
are not predictable beyond a week or two. So
it’s important to pay attention to your local
daily weather forecast throughout the winter.”
Winter is likely to offer little relief to the
drought-stricken U.S. Southwest, and drought is
likely to develop across parts of the Southeast
as below-average precipitation is favored in
these areas of the country, according to the
Winter Outlook..
Drought has been an ongoing concern across parts
of the Southwest and Texas for nearly three
years, and after some relief during the past few
months, drought is likely to redevelop during
winter.
The Precipitation Outlook favors:
-- Below-average precipitation in the Southwest,
Southeast and the Alaskan panhandle.
-- Above-average precipitation in the Northern
Rockies, particularly over Montana and northern
Wyoming and in Hawaii.
The Temperature Outlook favors:
-- Below-average temperatures in the Northern
Plains and the Alaskan Panhandle.
-- Above-average temperatures in the Southwest,
the South-Central U.S., parts of the Southeast,
New England and western Alaska.
The rest of the country falls into the “equal
chance” category, meaning that there is not a
strong or reliable enough climate signal in
these areas to favor one category over the
others, so they have an equal chance for above-,
near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or
precipitation.
The Climate Prediction Center produces the U.S.
Winter Outlook to give American communities the
best possible scientific prediction of how the
winter may shape up across the nation.
This outlook is intended to support local and
state governments in their effort to plan for
public needs during the winter, and large and
small businesses as they plan for winter impacts
on things like transportation, market demand for
goods and services, and finances.
“Building a Weather-Ready Nation is a collective
effort to improve America’s resilience to
extreme weather and climate by empowering the
public to make fast, smart and life-saving
decisions,” says the Center.
This seasonal outlook does not project where and
when snowstorms may hit or provide total
seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts
are dependent upon the strength and track of
winter storms, which are generally not
predictable more than a week in advance. |
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